Blog Post

Lack of wind prompts National Grid to issue energy shortage warning

Richard Simmonds • Oct 16, 2020

The National Grid has warned of electricity shortages over the next few days as wind power levels have tumbled due to an ‘unusual’ lull in windy weather. 

No wind, no power

Critics of wind power will be using this announcement as a way to prove their point. If there’s no wind blowing, then there’s no power being generated by the thousands of wind turbines dotting the UK landscape and offshore areas.

The lack of wind is so severe that the National Grid has warned that electricity shortages could occur over the next few days unless the weather changes.

“Unusually low wind output coinciding with a number of generator outages means the cushion of spare capacity we operate the system with has been reduced. We’re exploring measures and actions to make sure there is enough generation available to increase our buffer of capacity,” National Grid said on its Twitter account.

Unfortunately, the lack of wind is forecast to not change until October 19th at the earliest when a weather front moves into the country. For the next few days, however, the UK will experience unusually calm weather for the time of year. 

The wind is expected to contribute 16% to the energy mix today and that is expected to tumble to just 9% over the weekend. 

Perfect storm?

As well as wind generation falling other factors are coming into play when it comes to creating a potential shortage of energy.


Several coal and gas-fired power stations are also unavailable due to unplanned outages and planned outages at the Dungeness and Hunterston B nuclear sites will add to the strain of electricity supplies.


This means that the UK will likely turn to foreign sources of energy but even those are under strain as several nuclear reactors in France are suffering a series of operational issues. So far, the National Grid ESO has not issued a Capacity Market Notice as it did back in September when suppliers fell to dangerously low levels.

The UK to become the Saudi Arabia of wind?

The announcement from the National Grid calls into question Prime Ministers Boris Johnson’s recent announcement that the entirety of the UK will be powered by offshore and on land wind power.


He said the UK would become "the world leader in clean wind energy".


"Your kettle, your washing machine, your cooker, your heating, your plug-in electric vehicle - the whole lot of them will get their juice cleanly and without guilt from the breezes that blow around these islands. Far out in the deepest waters we will harvest the gusts, and by upgrading infrastructure in places like Teesside and Humber and Scotland and Wales, we will increase an offshore wind capacity that is already the biggest in the world. As Saudi Arabia is to oil, the UK is to wind - a place of almost limitless resource, but in the case of wind without the carbon emissions and without the damage to the environment," he said in a speech earlier this month.

 

The drive towards NetZero saw the government announce plans that it was raising its target for offshore wind power capacity by 2030 from 30 gigawatts to 40 gigawatts.

However, if the wind doesn’t blow, then what will make up the shortfall?

Energy shortages unlikely over the winter

National Grid also stated that energy shortages will be unlikely as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. The demand for electricity is forecast to be reduced due to the fall in the number of people going to pubs, restaurants, and the closure of offices as a consequence of lockdown measures.


The demand for electricity could fall by 2.4GW last winter as people work from home and commercial sites close under the government’s plan to limit the second wave of coronavirus infections.

Further Reading

Ofgem to increase monitoring of Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin' (Rego) certificates following Times Investigation


Acquisitions and mergers have been the biggest form of energy supplier growth


As Winter approaches three million households are in Energy Bill debt to Energy Suppliers


Dyball Associates are proud to help new supply businesses successfully launch in the UK market.

 

Through our energy market consultancy services, and the software we’ve developed, we’re supporting new UK electricity and gas suppliers get set up and start supplying.

 

For more information on how to start and manage an energy company, get in touch with Dyball Associates today.


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