As well as wind generation falling other factors are coming into play when it comes to creating a potential shortage of energy.
Several coal and gas-fired power stations are also unavailable due to unplanned outages and planned outages at the Dungeness and Hunterston B nuclear sites will add to the strain of electricity supplies.
This means that the UK will likely turn to foreign sources of energy but even those are under strain as several nuclear reactors in France are suffering a series of operational issues. So far, the National Grid ESO has not issued a Capacity Market Notice as it did back in September when suppliers fell to dangerously low levels.
The announcement from the National Grid calls into question Prime Ministers Boris Johnson’s recent announcement that the entirety of the UK will be powered by offshore and on land wind power.
He said the UK would become "the world leader in clean wind energy".
"Your kettle, your washing machine, your cooker, your heating, your plug-in electric vehicle - the whole lot of them will get their juice cleanly and without guilt from the breezes that blow around these islands. Far out in the deepest waters we will harvest the gusts, and by upgrading infrastructure in places like Teesside and Humber and Scotland and Wales, we will increase an offshore wind capacity that is already the biggest in the world. As Saudi Arabia is to oil, the UK is to wind - a place of almost limitless resource, but in the case of wind without the carbon emissions and without the damage to the environment," he said in a speech earlier this month.
The drive towards NetZero saw the government announce plans that it was raising its target for offshore wind power capacity by 2030 from 30 gigawatts to 40 gigawatts.
However, if the wind doesn’t blow, then what will make up the shortfall?
National Grid also stated that energy shortages will be unlikely as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. The demand for electricity is forecast to be reduced due to the fall in the number of people going to pubs, restaurants, and the closure of offices as a consequence of lockdown measures.
The demand for electricity could fall by 2.4GW last winter as people work from home and commercial sites close under the government’s plan to limit the second wave of coronavirus infections.
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