Electric Car ownership must rise 11,000% for the UK to hit Net-zero target

Climate Change Challenge

The research done by Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks (SSEN) in partnership with Regen predicts that the ownership of electric cars will rise sharply over the coming years but that the pace of change will have to be even faster if climate change targets are to be hit.

The report forecasts that EV ownership will rise from the current figure of 44,000 to over 5 million in the south of England and the north of Scotland by the 2050 deadline.

As previously reported, the issue of gas boilers will also need to be addressed with most needing to be replaced with heat pumps and other forms of environmentally friendly forms of heating. SSEN predicts that its local electricity network will have to provide enough power for two and a half million heat pumps by 2050.

“We already knew that the uptake of low carbon technologies is likely to leap and could pose major challenges for the resilience of our network. This research gives us a granular, year-by-year breakdown of when and where we should be ready to support the emergence of new technologies which will allow us to invest strategically and keep costs as low as possible for customers,” said the EV Readiness Manager for SSEN, Richard Hartshorn.



Optimism that target will be hit

In a separate report released by the National Grids Electricity System Operator unit, the number of electric cars on the UK’s roads will soar to 30 million over the next 20 years.

This huge increase is forecast to occur as a result of the introduction of new government measures designed to phase out petrol and diesel cars as well as incentives to encourage EV adoption.

It goes on to say that new technologies such as carbon capture and storage technology in combination with increased renewable energy output will see emissions from the energy sector fall into negative territory by 2033. 

Is it feasible?

Concerns over just how realistic hitting these ambitious targets are have been raised by both the power sector and industry alike.

Big questions such as who will pay for the vast sums of money it will take to install the infrastructure needed to provide for tens of millions of electric vehicles and how will that infrastructure be installed without causing massive disruption.

Other factors that haven’t been addressed include how will the government persuade the population to adopt expensive Evs and get rid of their fossil fuel using cars? How will the current economic crisis impact these plans as many will be calling on the government to spend cash elsewhere to stave off what could be the worst global recession in history?

“We see growth in renewable energy generation, including significant expansion in installed offshore wind capacity. There is widespread uptake in domestic electric vehicles, and growth and investment in hydrogen and carbon capture technologies too,” said Mark Herring, head of strategy at National Grid ESO. 

Further Reading

Installation of new gas boilers should be banned from 2025 to hit climate change targets says CBI

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